Methodology

How sentences become tags. The Index treats each sentence as a unit of analysis, classifies it bottom-up with a language model against a fixed rubric, and reconciles those tags with human review.

Sentence extraction

Every speech in the Index is split into individual sentences and used as the unit of analysis. A sentence is a tractable, recognisable unit: it has clear boundaries (punctuation), it is short enough that a single dominant frame usually applies, and it maps cleanly to the way readers and listeners actually parse rhetoric.

An alternative unit — the quasi-sentence used by parts of the political-text-analysis literature — splits sentences further whenever a single sentence carries more than one distinct argument. Quasi-sentences are useful in principle but fraught in practice: their boundaries are subjective, two coders rarely segment a long sentence the same way, and the resulting tag fragments are hard to compare across a corpus that already spans 240 years of evolving prose. The Index therefore stays at the sentence level and tags a sentence by its dominant frame.

Bottom-up AI classification

For each dimension, every sentence is passed to a frontier language model with a fixed rubric (see below). The model returns one tag per dimension, or null when no tag fits. Classification is run in batches of 40 sentences per request to avoid drop-off, with a single retry on length mismatch. Tags are stored alongside the sentence text in each speech's JSON file.

The rubric is identical for every model call. Speakers, dates, and external metadata are deliberately withheld from the prompt — the tag must come from the sentence in front of the model, not from priors about who is speaking.

Top-down human validation

Where resources allow, a sample of speeches is also tagged by human reviewers using the same rubric. Reviewers see the sentence and the rubric definitions but not the AI's tag.

Reconciliation

AI and human tags are then compared sentence by sentence. A sentence's dominant classification is the one both methods agree on; disagreements are flagged for re-tagging at scale and used to refine the rubric for the next pass. The Index is therefore a moving artefact — rubrics get tighter as the corpus grows.

Dimensions and rubrics

Each sentence is tagged on six dimensions. Use the options below as the working rubric.

Time orientation

Time orientation reveals whether a leader is framing the moment as one of inheritance, of present condition, or of imminent change — a quick proxy for whether a speech is defending a record, asserting authority, or making a promise.

Past
Anchors a specific historical event, decision, or condition. "We inherited a crisis last winter."
Present
Describes a current state of affairs being asserted now. "Inflation is plummeting."
Future
Commits to, predicts, or warns about a state of affairs yet to come. "We will rebuild this nation."

Expression (speech act)

Expression separates the speech's rhetorical function: factual claims, binding commitments, or calls to act. The mix exposes how much of a leader's discourse is descriptive, performative, or mobilising.

Assertion
Claims something to be the case. The default mode of fact-statement and characterisation.
Commitment
Binds the speaker (or their government) to a specific future course of action.
Call to action
Asks the audience — Congress, citizens, allies — to do something specific.

Stance to addressee

Stance captures the power posture a speaker takes toward the audience — humble petitioner, equal collaborator, or judging authority. It is how the speaker positions themselves relative to those who can act on the message.

Deferential
Positions the speaker below the addressee: thanks, tribute, apology, request for mercy.
Coordinate
Positions speaker and addressee as peers — "we", shared values, joint endeavour.
Dominant
Positions the speaker above an opponent, institution, or rival as judge or authority.

Agency

Agency identifies who the speech casts as the actor. Patterns here reveal whether a leader is centring their own state, building solidarity with allies, or focusing the audience on adversaries.

Nation
The speaker's own nation, government, party, or people is the actor in the sentence.
Ally
A partner, friend, or named ally is the actor.
Adversary
A rival, threat, or named adversary is the actor.

Reference

Reference tracks the scope a leader speaks to — domestic, bilateral, or regional/global. It exposes whether a speech is internally focused or projecting outward, and whose attention it seeks.

Domestic
Concerns the speaker's own country, internal affairs, citizens, or institutions.
Bilateral
Concerns the relationship between the speaker's country and one other named country.
Regional / Global
Concerns a region, bloc, multilateral institution, or the world as a whole.

Capability (GINC National Capability Framework, nine domains)

Capability maps each sentence onto the nine domains of the GINC National Capability Framework. It surfaces which levers of national power — hard, soft, or economic — a leader is signalling intent to invest in, defend, or wield.

CT · Hard
Critical Technology
AI, semiconductors, quantum, advanced materials, dual-use emerging tech, R&D in critical technology.
SI · Hard
Strategic Infrastructure
Energy grid, transport, broadband, supply chains, ports — the physical sinews of national power.
NS · Hard
National Security
Military, defence, deterrence, troops, weapons, alliances framed militarily, security operations, terrorism, intelligence.
HC · Soft
Human Capital
Education, schools, universities, health care, workforce skills, demographics, immigration as talent flow.
II · Soft
Information & Influence
Media, culture, diplomacy as narrative-shaping, broadcasting, public diplomacy, civilisational positioning.
GI · Soft
Governance & Integrity
Rule of law, institutions, courts, corruption, elections, democracy, leadership integrity, accountability.
FS · Economic
Financial Strength
Currency, budgets, debt, deficits, fiscal and monetary policy, reserves, taxes, banking, inflation when framed monetarily.
PI · Economic
Productivity & Innovation
Industry, manufacturing, factories, R&D investment, productivity, supply-side reform.
TI · Economic
Trade & Investment
Tariffs, trade deals, exports, imports, foreign direct investment, sanctions, currencies as trade weapons.

Sources

Transcripts are sourced from public archives. In addition to those listed below, GINC sources transcripts from public addresses to top up the index where useful coverage is missing.